Low-carbon building and affordable housing in the US are likely to be particularly badly hit by uncertainty around president Donald Trump‘s import tariffs, experts have told Dezeen.
Markets were plunged into chaos earlier this month when Trump announced high import tariffs on goods from many countries around the world, before later suddenly implementing a 90-day pause just as they began to take effect.
Uncertainty remains over what the long-term policy will be, with the American Institute of Architects (AIA) concerned about the impact on building.
“Uncertainty can make us short-sighted”
“We’ve already seen significant increases in the cost of key inputs to construction, often based merely on the threats of future tariffs,” said AIA economist Kermit Baker.
Harvard Graduate School of Design associate professor of real estate Bing Wang predicted that the volatility will mean developers are less interested in investing in sustainable architecture, which is usually associated with higher up-front building costs.
“With an overall increase of construction costs, it will be a question to what extent developers, or investors, are willing to take on extra costs to build those green buildings,” she said. “I think that absolutely will be impacted.”
Claire Weisz, co-founder of New York City studio WXY Architecture, echoed those concerns.
“Uncertainty can make us short-sighted, especially when there is pressure on the supply chain,” she said.
The US currently imports a large proportion of products used in more sustainable construction from overseas, with many coming from Germany.
Trump initially announced 20 per cent tariffs on goods imported from the EU, with German finance minister Jörg Kukies warning that the country’s exports to the US could consequently fall by as much as 15 per cent.
Like most other countries, the bloc is now subject to a 10 per cent rate during the 90-day pause.
Solar technology is a particular area of concern, with most of the US’ solar panels imported from Asian countries set for huge levies in July, such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand.
Housing crisis “will be exacerbated”
There are also fears over how tariffs could impact mass-timber construction, an alternative to heavily polluting concrete, which currently accounts for less than one per cent of US building but has been growing rapidly.
The US mass-timber market relies heavily on wood imported from Canada – and though Trump’s administration carved out exemptions for lumber when imposing tariffs on his North American neighbours, it later signalled levies could rise again in September.
In the meantime, 25 per cent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian metals including aluminium and steel are already in effect, with an expected impact on affordable-housing delivery.
“The housing supply problem will be exacerbated by this,” said Wang, while housing non-profits in Oklahoma and Nashville are among those to have warned about the potential for a reduction in their ability to provide new homes.
The main photo, showing the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in North Dakota, is courtesy of Snøhetta.
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